Forecast
If deflections occur at “dob” and below, aurora should be visible in the UK. [Link]
Satellite solar wind data
ACE Satellite at L1 – gives up to 50 minutes’ warning of an event at Earth.
Bz = solar wind magnetic polarity (negative is good for aurora).
Sharp density and speed increases indicate possible CME incoming to Earth.
A solar proton event (SPE), or “proton storm“, occurs when particles (mostly protons) emitted by the Sun become accelerated either close to the Sun during a flare or in interplanetary space by CME shocks. The events can include other nuclei such as helium ions and HZE ions. These particles cause multiple effects. They can penetrate the Earth’s magnetic field and cause ionization in the ionosphere. The effect is similar to auroral events, except that protons rather than electrons are involved. Energetic protons are a significant radiation hazard to spacecraft and astronauts.
A geomagnetic storm (commonly referred to as a solar storm) is a temporary disturbance of the Earth’s magnetosphere caused by a solar wind shock wave and/or cloud of magnetic field that interacts with the Earth’s magnetic field. The increase in the solar wind pressure initially compresses the magnetosphere. The solar wind’s magnetic field interacts with the Earth’s magnetic field and transfers an increased energy into the magnetosphere. Both interactions cause an increase in plasma movement through the magnetosphere (driven by increased electric fields inside the magnetosphere) and an increase in electric current in the magnetosphere and ionosphere.
Live data from BGS: Link
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